GO/NOGO

SpaceX Launch Weather Forecast
Updated: 04:36 UTC
Falcon 9 Block 5 | Starlink Group 15-16 GO
T-2h 49m
Oct 27, 2026 · 07:25 UTC · Space Launch Complex 4E
Mission Details
Communications
▶

A batch of 27 satellites for the Starlink mega-constellation - SpaceX's project for space-based Internet communication system.

Low Earth Orbit
2-Hour Nowcast
46% scrub risk
▶
NWS live observations + METAR conditions (all 8 features)
Temperature Range
13 °F
+risk
Max Dewpoint
58.5 °F
-risk
Avg Wind Speed
6.9 mph
-risk
Precipitation
No
-risk
Prior Day Avg Wind
7.4 mph
-risk
Wind at Launch Hour
6.9 mph
+risk
Sky Obscured
No
-risk
Thunderstorms
No
~
24-Hour Forecast
64% scrub risk
▶
NWS hourly forecast + yesterday's observations (5 of 8 features)
Temperature Range
2 °F
+risk
Avg Wind Speed
11.7 mph
+risk
Max Dewpoint
58.0 °F
-risk
Prior Day Avg Wind
7.4 mph
-risk
Wind at Launch Hour
10.0 mph
~
Thunderstorms
Not available in 24-hour forecast
Precipitation
Not available in 24-hour forecast
Sky Obscured
Not available in 24-hour forecast
7-Day Forecast
Unfavorable
▶
NWS 7-day forecast (3 of 8 model features available)
Avg Wind Speed
12.5 mph
+risk
Temperature Range
15 °F
+risk
Wind at Launch Hour
12.5 mph
-risk
Max Dewpoint
Not available in 7-day forecast
Prior Day Avg Wind
Not available in 7-day forecast
Thunderstorms
Not available in 7-day forecast
Precipitation
Not available in 7-day forecast
Sky Obscured
Not available in 7-day forecast
Falcon 9 Block 5 | Starlink Group 15-18 GO
T-2d 23h
Oct 30, 2026 · 04:02 UTC · Space Launch Complex 4E
Mission Details
Communications
▶

A batch of 27 satellites for the Starlink mega-constellation - SpaceX's project for space-based Internet communication system.

Low Earth Orbit
7-Day Forecast
Unfavorable
▶
NWS 7-day forecast (3 of 8 model features available)
Temperature Range
11 °F
+risk
Avg Wind Speed
7.5 mph
-risk
Wind at Launch Hour
7.5 mph
+risk
Max Dewpoint
Not available in 7-day forecast
Prior Day Avg Wind
Not available in 7-day forecast
Thunderstorms
Not available in 7-day forecast
Precipitation
Not available in 7-day forecast
Sky Obscured
Not available in 7-day forecast
Falcon 9 Block 5 | USSF-432 GO
T-5d 21h
Nov 02, 2026 · 01:56 UTC · Space Launch Complex 4E
Mission Details
Government/Top Secret
▶

A classified mission for the United States Space Force. It is possibly a batch of classified LEO satellites based on SpaceX’s Starshield satellite bus, based on locations of rocket stage drop zones being exact fits with previous Starlink Group 15 launches.

Low Earth Orbit
7-Day Forecast
Marginal
▶
NWS 7-day forecast (3 of 8 model features available)
Avg Wind Speed
5.0 mph
-risk
Wind at Launch Hour
5.0 mph
+risk
Temperature Range
15.0 °F
+risk
Max Dewpoint
Not available in 7-day forecast
Prior Day Avg Wind
Not available in 7-day forecast
Thunderstorms
Not available in 7-day forecast
Precipitation
Not available in 7-day forecast
Sky Obscured
Not available in 7-day forecast
Falcon 9 Block 5 | Starlink Group 15-15 Launched
Oct 23, 2026 · 22:48 UTC · Space Launch Complex 4E
Mission Details
Communications
▶

A batch of 27 satellites for the Starlink mega-constellation - SpaceX's project for space-based Internet communication system.

Low Earth Orbit

What is this?

GoNoGo predicts the likelihood of a weather-related scrub for upcoming SpaceX launches. It does not predict technical holds, range conflicts, or vehicle issues — only weather.

The Model

Logistic Regression trained on 1,005 SpaceX launch attempts (2010-2026) with time-series cross-validation. The model uses 8 weather features extracted from historical NOAA and METAR data. Test set ROC-AUC: 0.624 on 333 held-out 2024+ launches. Top-decile lift: 2.1x (the highest-risk 10% of launches scrub at 2.1x the base rate).

Features

  • Temperature range (daily high-low spread)
  • Average wind speed
  • Wind speed at launch hour
  • Maximum dewpoint (humidity/moisture indicator)
  • Prior day average wind
  • Active precipitation (rain, drizzle, snow)
  • Thunderstorm activity
  • Sky obscuration (broken/overcast cloud cover)

Forecast Horizons

7-Day Forecast: Uses NWS extended forecast — only 3 of 8 features available. Qualitative rating (Favorable / Marginal / Unfavorable) rather than a percentage.

24-Hour Forecast: Uses NWS hourly forecast + yesterday's observations — 5 of 8 features. Shows scrub risk percentage.

2-Hour Nowcast: Uses NWS live observations + METAR conditions — all 8 features. Most accurate prediction window.

Limitations

Only ~26% of historical scrubs are weather-related. The model cannot predict technical issues, which account for the majority of delays. Predictions should be treated as one signal among many, not a definitive forecast.

Data Sources

NWS Weather API (forecasts and observations) · Launch Library 2 (upcoming launches) · Iowa Environmental Mesonet (historical METAR) · NOAA (historical weather)